November ’25 Update: The exec hiring market has not slowed. It has tightened. Tech layoffs continue to cool, with about 114K cuts, which shrinks the talent surplus as top operators get snapped up instantly. CEO and board searches surged in October, rising more than 50 percent and almost 30 percent month over month, while GTM demand fell. This points to a shift toward structural upgrades at the top. Shutdown delays have blurred the data again, but the late September report showed 119K jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.4 percent, with weekly claims drifting upward. The signal is friction, not failure. AI funding remains dominant. Through the first half and into Q3, AI startups captured more than 64 percent of U.S. venture dollars and reached a 377 billion annualized run rate, while non-AI SaaS remains constrained, with 100M-plus rounds down from 147 in 2021 to only 21 in the past year. Company formation is steady but matured, with births near 322K and closures continuing to moderate. For founders, capital is concentrated, hiring is selective, and leadership choices matter more than ever. Here is your pulse on what is shifting and what to do next.

October ’25 Update: The exec hiring market hasn’t cooled — it’s gotten selective. AI now commands nearly two-thirds of all U.S. venture dollars, while traditional SaaS funding continues to contract. Executive hiring, meanwhile, just hit a new post-COVID high — up 14% quarter-over-quarter — even as broader job growth stalls. Government shutdown delays have blurred the official data, but private reports show a clear slowdown: ADP estimates 32K jobs lost in September, with August’s gain revised to –3K. Unemployment is holding near 4.3%, and jobless claims sit around 218K — signaling friction, not failure. Tech layoffs have eased (~98K YTD), but the aftershocks still shape the talent pool as the best executives get snapped up almost instantly. At the same time, AI’s share of venture funding has become overwhelming. In 1H 2025 alone, AI startups raised $377 billion globally — more than all of 2024 — and the top 1% are still commanding 3–10x higher valuations than non-AI peers. For most SaaS founders, capital has become a zero-sum game, pushing leadership teams to prove discipline, profitability, and AI fluency from day one. Whether you’re a founder chasing transformative talent or an investor guiding portfolio hires, here’s your quick pulse on what’s shifting — and what to do next.

September ’25 Update: The exec hiring market hasn’t cooled — it’s shifting gears. Startup formation has slowed, job growth is stalling, and tech layoffs are still reshaping the talent pool. At the same time, AI is pulling in the majority of capital, but investors are tightening the funnel and raising the bar for leadership performance. This post breaks down why new company creation has moderated, what rising unemployment claims (263K) and a weak August jobs report (+22K, 4.3% unemployment) mean for hiring timelines, and how ~95K tech layoffs this year are surfacing rare execs — though the best are gone in days. Meanwhile, Carta’s latest data shows the top 1% of AI startups are now raising at 3–10x higher multiples than non-AI peers, cementing a two-track venture market. Whether you’re a founder chasing transformative talent or an investor guiding portfolio hires, here’s your quick pulse on what’s shifting — and what to do next.

August ’25 Update: The exec hiring market is getting faster and more cutthroat. AI is hoarding capital, layoffs are releasing rare leadership talent, and founders are under pressure to move quickly — and get it right. This post breaks down the late Q2 hiring surge, the collapse in junior roles, and the pivot toward seasoned operators with AI fluency, data depth, and scaling experience. Meanwhile, 41% of U.S. VC went to just 10 companies (8 of them AI), and M&A is spiking — led by AI infra and cybersecurity rollups. Whether you're a founder chasing top talent or an investor guiding critical hires, here’s your quick pulse on what’s shifting — and what to do next.

July ’25 Update: Executive hiring is heating up again — but the landscape looks very different from even a few months ago. This post unpacks what we’re seeing in real time: AI-native startups are pulling ahead in both capital and talent, layoff spikes are reshaping the candidate pool, and founders are under pressure to move fast — without misfiring on high-stakes leadership hires. Meanwhile, junior hiring continues to collapse, and top operators are more selective, more skeptical, and getting picked off earlier in the process. Whether you're a founder trying to land senior talent who can actually scale with the business — or an investor advising startups on how to avoid costly hiring mistakes — this is your short, high-signal read on what’s shifting in H1 2025… and what to do next.